It’s more about the structure of the business. They already have a significant market share, but the market itself is growing more slowly than competition is intensifying.
On top of that, their core products are inherently low-margin, and the timeline for reaching sustainable profitability keeps getting pushed further out
Did you read my report? I don't share your viewpoint; I think they have already reached sustainable profitability, and due to the sheer scale now reached, incentives can be lowered. With the scale, the unit economics are massively improving, and not only will there be fast growth, but it will be increasingly more profitable growth ahead.
Yeah, of course I’ve read it (great research. that’s why I decided to share some thoughts.
They already have almost 70% market share in mobility and delivery. What’s next? This is no longer about growth it’s about consolidation (I agree with you) and defending market share.
At the same time, the stock is still trading around the same level as in 2022. As I mentioned in my first comment, there was a bounce driven by the launch of the new segment (finance), and then it moved down again because there’s limited room for growth in the core business segments
Awesome, thank you so much for this
Emir, thanks for your analysis of Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB US).
What do you think of the unexpected regulatory pressures?
I decided to pass because I find it hard to believe GRAB can meaningfully raise its take-rate.
Drivers in the region are typically among the most economically vulnerable. Governments have incentives to protect them over shareholders.
On 1 May 2026, President Subianto announced Indonesia will reduce the maximum commission of ride-hailing companies from 20% to only 8%.
I discuss this risk in detail here: https://www.angsanaanderson.com/p/grab-not-as-cash-generative-as-you?r=5rl2u5
Thank you for your research!
I’ve been tracking Grab Holdings for more than three years, and I still struggle to make the unit economics work.
The pattern feels familiar: new initiatives → expectations build → narrative improves → and then execution falls short.
Hmm, where has execution fallen short? They have very clearly out-executed everyone else across the whole southeast asian market
I wouldn’t say it’s an execution issue.
It’s more about the structure of the business. They already have a significant market share, but the market itself is growing more slowly than competition is intensifying.
On top of that, their core products are inherently low-margin, and the timeline for reaching sustainable profitability keeps getting pushed further out
Did you read my report? I don't share your viewpoint; I think they have already reached sustainable profitability, and due to the sheer scale now reached, incentives can be lowered. With the scale, the unit economics are massively improving, and not only will there be fast growth, but it will be increasingly more profitable growth ahead.
Yeah, of course I’ve read it (great research. that’s why I decided to share some thoughts.
They already have almost 70% market share in mobility and delivery. What’s next? This is no longer about growth it’s about consolidation (I agree with you) and defending market share.
At the same time, the stock is still trading around the same level as in 2022. As I mentioned in my first comment, there was a bounce driven by the launch of the new segment (finance), and then it moved down again because there’s limited room for growth in the core business segments